Leadership & Management

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Many important decisions must be made before all the facts are known. This course gives leaders practical tools to decide well under uncertainty: framing the decision, thinking in probabilities, using scenarios and decision trees, avoiding common biases, involving the right people and learning systematically from outcomes.

5 days Classroom or live online English

Smart Horizon Certified - Global Leadership Consultants

Take the course details with you.

Download the full standard outline: why attend, methodology, objectives, audience, competencies, the daily outline and current plans.

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Why attend

From knowledge to real-world impact.

Good decisions can still lead to bad outcomes, and vice versa. You will learn to judge decisions by their quality and improve your decision process over time.

Workplace challenges

Professional Problems This Course Is Designed to Solve

The programme explores practical approaches to the following challenges. Results depend on how the learning is applied in your organisation.

Difficulty translating subject knowledge into practical workplace decisions.
Inconsistent approaches to the activities covered in the course outline.
Lack of a structured plan for applying and reviewing new skills.

Course methodology

How you will learn.

Decision exercises, bias experiments, scenario workshops, decision-tree practice and case studies of business decisions.

Course objectives

What you'll take away.

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

Frame decisions clearly and define objectives
Think in probabilities and ranges rather than certainties
Use scenarios and decision trees to compare options
Recognise and reduce cognitive biases
Design group decision processes that use diverse views
Review decisions and learn from outcomes

Target audience

Who should attend.

This course is suitable for:

Managers and senior leaders
Project and investment decision makers
Strategy and planning professionals
Risk managers
Analysts supporting decisions

Target competencies

Capabilities you will build.

Participants will develop competencies in:

Decision framing
Probabilistic thinking
Scenario analysis
Bias awareness
Group facilitation

Course outline

Your learning journey.

A focused, practical outline with time to explore, apply and reflect.

Day 1Decision Quality

09:00–10:08Decision quality versus outcome
10:08–11:00Framing the decision
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Framing the decision (continued)
11:45–12:53Objectives and criteria
12:53–14:00Exercise: reframing a real decision

Day 2Thinking in Probabilities

09:00–10:08Estimating likelihoods
10:08–11:00Ranges and confidence
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Ranges and confidence (continued)
11:45–12:53Expected value
12:53–14:00Calibration exercise

Day 3Scenarios and Decision Trees

09:00–10:08Building scenarios
10:08–11:00Decision trees
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Decision trees (continued)
11:45–12:53Value of information
12:53–14:00Workshop: investment decision

Day 4Biases and Group Decisions

09:00–10:08Common cognitive biases
10:08–11:00Groupthink and how to avoid it
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Groupthink and how to avoid it (continued)
11:45–12:53Pre-mortems and red teams
12:53–14:00Simulation: team decision

Day 5Learning from Decisions

09:00–10:08Decision journals
10:08–11:00After-action reviews
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45After-action reviews (continued)
11:45–12:53Building a decision culture
12:53–14:00Action plan

The timings provided are estimates and may vary depending on the number of participants and the discussions taking place during the sessions. They are indicative only and do not constitute a binding commitment.

Dates & venues

Find a session that works for you.

Confirmed dates accept registration requests. Tentative dates are enquiry only.

Good to know

A few things to know.

How is the course delivered?

Our classroom programmes combine facilitated discussion, case studies, exercises and reflection. The precise format will be confirmed before enrolment.

Can you deliver this programme for our team?

Yes, you can enquire about a tailored programme. Share your goals, group size and preferred dates with our learning team.

Will I receive a certificate?

Participants who complete the programme receive a Smart Horizon certificate of attendance. Smart Horizon programmes are not externally accredited and do not award a professional qualification, licence or designation. Where a course title or outline refers to a professional certification (for example, AACE International's Certified Cost Professional), the programme supports learning and preparation only; the credential itself is awarded solely by the relevant professional body under its own application and examination requirements.

What should I confirm before booking travel?

Please confirm the session, exact venue, accessibility arrangements, fees and any visa requirements with the team before arranging travel. Tentative dates are not confirmed sessions.

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