Project Management

Project Risk Quantification and Monte Carlo Analysis

Single-point estimates rarely reflect the real uncertainty in projects. This course teaches quantitative risk analysis: building risk-informed estimates, three-point estimating, Monte Carlo simulation of cost and schedule, interpreting confidence levels and contingency, and communicating results to decision makers.

5 days Classroom or live online English

Smart Horizon Certified - Global Leadership Consultants

Take the course details with you.

Download the full standard outline: why attend, methodology, objectives, audience, competencies, the daily outline and current plans.

Download course PDF

Why attend

From knowledge to real-world impact.

Decision makers need to know not just a date and a number, but how confident to be in them. You will learn the techniques to provide that answer.

Workplace challenges

Professional Problems This Course Is Designed to Solve

The programme explores practical approaches to the following challenges. Results depend on how the learning is applied in your organisation.

Difficulty translating subject knowledge into practical workplace decisions.
Inconsistent approaches to the activities covered in the course outline.
Lack of a structured plan for applying and reviewing new skills.

Course methodology

How you will learn.

Spreadsheet simulation exercises, risk workshop practice, case studies and results presentation practice.

Course objectives

What you'll take away.

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

Explain the limits of deterministic estimates
Run effective risk identification and assessment workshops
Use three-point estimates and probability distributions
Perform Monte Carlo simulation of cost and schedule
Set contingency at chosen confidence levels
Communicate quantitative risk results clearly

Target audience

Who should attend.

This course is suitable for:

Project managers and planners
Risk managers
Cost engineers and estimators
Project control professionals
Investment decision makers

Target competencies

Capabilities you will build.

Participants will develop competencies in:

Risk quantification
Simulation modelling
Contingency setting
Statistical interpretation
Risk communication

Course outline

Your learning journey.

A focused, practical outline with time to explore, apply and reflect.

Day 1Risk and Uncertainty

09:00–10:08Qualitative versus quantitative analysis
10:08–11:00Uncertainty and discrete risks
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Uncertainty and discrete risks (continued)
11:45–12:53Bias in estimates
12:53–14:00Exercise

Day 2Estimating Ranges

09:00–10:08Three-point estimating
10:08–11:00Probability distributions
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Probability distributions (continued)
11:45–12:53Correlation
12:53–14:00Workshop: risk inputs

Day 3Monte Carlo Simulation

09:00–10:08How simulation works
10:08–11:00Cost risk models
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Cost risk models (continued)
11:45–12:53Spreadsheet exercise
12:53–14:00Interpreting S-curves

Day 4Schedule Risk

09:00–10:08Schedule risk analysis
10:08–11:00Merge bias
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Merge bias (continued)
11:45–12:53Critical path sensitivity
12:53–14:00Case study

Day 5Using the Results

09:00–10:08Contingency and confidence levels
10:08–11:00Reporting to decision makers
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Reporting to decision makers (continued)
11:45–12:53Risk response planning
12:53–14:00Action plan

The timings provided are estimates and may vary depending on the number of participants and the discussions taking place during the sessions. They are indicative only and do not constitute a binding commitment.

Dates & venues

Find a session that works for you.

Confirmed dates accept registration requests. Tentative dates are enquiry only.

Good to know

A few things to know.

How is the course delivered?

Our classroom programmes combine facilitated discussion, case studies, exercises and reflection. The precise format will be confirmed before enrolment.

Can you deliver this programme for our team?

Yes, you can enquire about a tailored programme. Share your goals, group size and preferred dates with our learning team.

Will I receive a certificate?

Participants who complete the programme receive a Smart Horizon certificate of attendance. Smart Horizon programmes are not externally accredited and do not award a professional qualification, licence or designation. Where a course title or outline refers to a professional certification (for example, AACE International's Certified Cost Professional), the programme supports learning and preparation only; the credential itself is awarded solely by the relevant professional body under its own application and examination requirements.

What should I confirm before booking travel?

Please confirm the session, exact venue, accessibility arrangements, fees and any visa requirements with the team before arranging travel. Tentative dates are not confirmed sessions.

Keep exploring

Your next horizon awaits.

All courses

The full course agenda and dates are available above. Use the session links in Dates & venues to choose a session. Registration and quotation forms require JavaScript; you can also contact our learning team directly.